"S. Fu" wrote in message
news:2009070223282650878-fufunu@fubarorg...
> On 2009-07-02 20:40:03 -0700, "KalElFan" said:
>
>> She could wait until 2020 to run for President and still
>> only be 56. If she doesn't run in 2012, I'll go out on a
>> limb and predict the Republican nominee is Rudy Giuliani.
>
> Rudy is done. Even Rudy knows that Rudy is done.
Nope, and Palin doing today what I predicted she'd do in
another 6 to 8 months may even make the scenario all the
more likely.
Giuliani, Huckabee and Palin are all authentic. Romney
is the Max Headroom of the party, as inauthentic as it
gets and more slippery than his hair.
That's why you see Giuliani and his wife posing with
Palin and her husband at the Yankees game, and
Huckabee the Likeable on his weekly FOX show
interviewing guests and playing his guitar in country
music segments. They're the folks and with the folks,
while Romney and his backroom people and network
are busy behind the party scenes stabbing Palin in the
back and on their way to buying the nomination.
This doesn't make Romney a bad person. :-) Politics
is a tough business. Being a rich, inauthentic, slippery
weasel may be more a virtue than a vice on the road
to becoming President. Republicans aren't inherently
against such a candidate if they're perceived as capable
of winning.
The Pew Research poll a few weeks back has Palin at
73% favorable among Republicans, with Romney next
at 57%. Palin's favorables are even higher among some
key parts of the base, for example 80% among those
Republicans describing themselves as conservative.
So she's loved by the base and she can bring out the
crowds and raise money. People love Rudy too, and
to some extent the nice guy Huckabee. People in the
party loved Reagan. Romney, not so much.
If Palin runs, and Romney runs as expected, one of
those two will be the nominee I think. But I think it's
now no better than 50-50 that Palin runs in 2012.
If she doesn't run, I think Romney is unbeatable for
the nomination unless Palin supports one of the other
candidates. Rudy, Huckabee, or Pawlenty would
all have a decent chance of winning the nomination
over Romney if Palin supported and campaigned
for them. I think the one she'd be most likely to
support is Rudy.
Rudy was the frontrunner last time until his strategy of
abandoning the early states blew up and he couldn't win
Florida. With Palin endorsing him, I think it becomes
a race between Rudy and Romney and Rudy wins.
Huckabee did well in Iowa last time but realistically
I don't think he can see any chance of winning the
nomination in that scenario. He doesn't much care
for Romney (to understate it some say) and would I
think also endorse Rudy. Rudy would win Iowa and
quite possibly New Hampshire, and it'd be a rout after
that. Romney would get out by Florida at the latest.
If Palin doesn't run in 2012, I think she might also take
herself out of any VP nomination. Been there done
that and the job itself is kind of a joke. The next time
she runs, if she does, it'll be for President. She might
agree to some other role in a Rudy Administration.
Right now I think it's 60-40 that Obama's administration
is headed for a Carter-level meltdown, in fact possibly
worse though that's a tall order. Whoever the nominee
is for the Republicans would have a very good chance to
win in that scenario. |
